AGP Executive Report

US Tariff Shock for Ecuador: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 duties tied to forced-labor enforcement failures, with Ecuador listed among countries facing a 10% additional tariff (alongside Canada, Mexico, the EU, Indonesia, Pakistan). The move is not final, with public comments due by July 6 and hearings set for July 7, and it’s already drawing pushback from trading partners that say the findings are disputed and could disrupt supply chains. Trade Policy Fallout: Washington says the tariffs are meant to rebuild a broader tariff regime after earlier emergency measures were struck down in U.S. courts, while business groups warn the approach adds compliance confusion. Ecuador in the Crosshairs: The proposal places Ecuador directly in the U.S. forced-labor tariff framework, even as Ecuador’s broader regional trade environment remains sensitive to U.S. legal and policy shifts. World Cup Business Angle: Separate coverage highlights Ecuador’s Group E World Cup campaign, with Ecuador set to play Ivory Coast in Philadelphia—an event that can affect travel, hospitality, and local commerce.

Trade Policy Shock: The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 tariffs of 10% (Canada, Ecuador, EU, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan and others) and 12.5% (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and more) after finding 60 economies failed to effectively block imports made with forced labor—an approach trading partners say is unfair and will disrupt supply chains. Ecuador Angle: Ecuador is explicitly named among countries facing the 10% proposal, putting fresh pressure on exporters and importers tied to U.S. demand. Aviation Safety: The FAA is investigating a close call involving a JetBlue flight from Ecuador near Fort Lauderdale, highlighting ongoing air-traffic controller strain. World Cup Economy & Tourism: With the 2026 tournament starting June 11 across the U.S., Canada and Mexico, coverage focuses on costs and fan logistics, including Philadelphia match planning and watch-party culture—useful for Ecuador-linked travel and trade in services.

Trade Policy Shock: The US Trade Representative has proposed new Section 301 duties of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, citing failures to effectively ban goods made with forced labour—Ecuador is named among the 10% group, alongside Canada, the EU, Mexico, Pakistan and others. Ecuador-Colombia Business Fallout: As Ecuador lifted tariffs on Colombian goods effective June 1, Colombia’s foreign trade association Analdex urged full normalization of trade, trying to separate the economic agenda from political controversy tied to the tariff decision. Commodities & Corruption Watch: Geneva-based trader Gunvor was searched by federal investigators in a corruption probe linked to an opaque Gabon oil contract; Switzerland has already convicted Gunvor twice, including in Ecuador. Logistics & Security: Hungary seized a record 522 kg of cocaine hidden in a banana shipment from Ecuador, routed via Germany, underscoring how trade flows can be exploited. World Cup Economy & Ecuador Visibility: Philadelphia detailed World Cup security and transit upgrades for six matches, including Côte d’Ivoire vs Ecuador on June 14—while Ecuador’s presence also shows up in broader regional tourism growth forecasts.

Ecuador–Colombia Business & Trade: Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa government is again in the spotlight as the tariff dispute with Colombia continues to ripple into politics, with reports tying Quito’s tariff moves to accusations of electoral interference. Regional Politics & Risk: Colombia’s presidential race is tightening after far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella topped the first round and will face Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff, raising uncertainty for investors watching security, trade, and policy direction. Ecuador in Global Supply Chains: Hungary seized a record 522 kg of cocaine hidden in banana shipments traced back to Ecuador, underscoring how Ecuadorian exports can be pulled into international enforcement and reputational risk. Health Tech in Ecuador: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics expanded access to blood tests for Alzheimer’s amyloid pathology across Latin America, including Ecuador, as demand grows with aging populations and limited specialist capacity. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: Azerbaijan is reported to be eyeing financing for Ecuador’s energy and infrastructure projects, a potential boost for capital inflows and procurement pipelines. Corporate Legal Watch: Chevron named Scott Keller as general counsel as part of its succession plan, a reminder of how major oil firms are reshaping leadership ahead of major legal and regulatory cycles.

Colombia-Ecuador Trade Truce: Ecuador has formally removed the customs security fee and eliminated the tariffs it imposed on Colombian goods, ending a months-long tariff fight that hit medicines, cosmetics, plastics and rubber and squeezed cross-border imports. Colombia Runoff Politics: Colombia’s far-right “El Tigre” Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round with 43.7% and will face leftist senator Iván Cepeda on June 21, as Petro disputed preliminary results and raised concerns about electoral irregularities. Workers’ Rights Watch: The ITUC’s 2026 Global Rights Index added Ecuador to the worst category for workers’ rights, alongside Argentina and Panama, citing shrinking guarantees and rising repression. Health & Diagnostics Deal: C2N Diagnostics and SouthGenetics expanded access to blood tests for Alzheimer’s amyloid pathology, with initial rollout planned across Ecuador and other regional markets. Local Business Growth in Cuenca: Cuenca’s Mall del Alto opened with about 250 spaces and is drawing both international franchises and homegrown food brands, giving local entrepreneurs a bigger customer base. Ecuador in the Global Talent Pipeline: Korea’s language program is set to enter Colombian classrooms, highlighting growing regional demand for new skills and education partnerships.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Reset: Ecuador’s customs authority has abolished the 100% tariff on Colombian goods effective June 1, cutting the security surcharge to zero after talks involving President Daniel Noboa and presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, aiming to restart legal trade while tightening joint action against illicit economies. Labor Rights Watch: The ITUC’s 2026 Global Rights Index says repression of workers’ rights is worsening globally, with Ecuador newly listed among the worst performers and the report flagging widespread violations of the right to strike and collective bargaining. Private Education Pressure: Ecuador’s Education Ministry reports private school enrollment has fallen 24% since 2018, citing family financial strain and a declining birth rate. Security and Justice: Police say they’ve identified two suspects still at large after a deadly Chordeleg jewelry store robbery, while authorities criticized the “lynch mob” that killed two captured suspects. World Cup Business Pulse: With Ecuador in Group E, the tournament’s June kickoff roster deadline is today, and Ecuador’s matches (including vs Curacao) are set to draw regional attention as fans plan travel and spending across host cities.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Reset: Ecuador’s customs authority has ordered the end of the 100% tariff on Colombian goods starting June 1, ending a months-long trade dispute tied to border security and drug-fighting demands. Diplomatic Fallout: Colombia rejected Ecuador’s framing of the tariff cut as political goodwill, accusing Quito of “deliberate interference” in Colombia’s presidential election after Noboa discussed tariff removal with far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella. Election Watch (Colombia): De la Espriella won the first round and will face Petro ally Iván Cepeda in a June 21 runoff, with violence and cartel policy at the center of the campaign. Cross-Border Crime Link: A major cocaine case in the Pacific involving Ecuadorian arrests was tied to Colombia’s Clan del Golfo, underscoring the region’s illicit trafficking networks. Business & Travel Angle: New York/New Jersey is gearing up for World Cup 2026 matches at MetLife, with free fan events and small-business activations planned across the metro area. Ecuador Economy/Industry: Ecuador is also set to provide USD 10.5 million to fishers to offset spiking fuel costs.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade & Politics: Colombia’s foreign ministry escalated its dispute with Quito, accusing President Daniel Noboa of “deliberate interference” in Colombia’s Sunday presidential election after Noboa said he would lift Ecuador’s tariffs on June 1 following a call with right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella; Colombia says the tariff rollback is required by Andean Community rules, not a goodwill gesture, and it also plans to remove its own mitigation measures. Shrimp Industry Under Curfew: Ecuador’s second curfew in months—covering key shrimp provinces including Pichincha and Guayas—runs 11 p.m. to 5 a.m. with no economic exemptions, raising fears of production delays for the world’s leading shrimp exporter amid higher fuel costs and U.S. tariff pressure. Amazon Oil Rights Clash: Indigenous groups in Ecuador’s Amazon face threats from new oil bidding rounds that overlap ancestral territories; Cultural Survival urges the government to halt expansion and respect constitutional Rights of Nature. Energy & Trade Signals: Japan’s April crude imports show Saudi dominance but a notable overall shift, while Ecuador appears among smaller suppliers—useful context for Ecuador’s export and energy planning. Global Business Context: A World Press Freedom Index update flags a worsening global environment for journalism, with implications for business transparency and risk.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade Clash: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa said tariffs on Colombian imports will be lifted June 1 after talks with presidential candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, but Colombia’s foreign ministry called it “deliberate interference” in Sunday’s election and argued the move is tied to Andean Community rules rather than goodwill. Crime & Border Economics: The tariff fight is rooted in Ecuador’s “security tax” over alleged weak Colombian action against drug trafficking along the 586-km border—an issue both sides frame differently as the election nears. Shrimp Industry Under Curfew: Ecuador imposed a second overnight curfew (May 3–18) across nine provinces, including Pichincha and Guayas, with no sector exemptions—raising fears of lost production hours for the world-leading shrimp exporter amid higher fuel costs and U.S. tariff pressure. Amazon Oil Rights Pressure: Indigenous groups in Ecuador’s Amazon warned that upcoming oil auction rounds overlapping ancestral territories could endanger water, biodiversity, and livelihoods, calling for a halt and stronger enforcement of constitutional Rights of Nature. World Cup Business Backdrop: Ecuador is in Group E for the 2026 World Cup, as Ecuadorian fans and regional tourism operators gear up for matchday demand across North America.

Tariff Reset for Colombia: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa says he will lift all tariffs on Colombian products starting June 1, ending a security-fee tariff that had climbed from 30% to 100% since February, in a deal tied to expanded trade, energy, and security cooperation with Colombian candidate Abelardo de la Espriella. Crime Pact Across Borders: Ecuador joined Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, and Peru in the “Santiago Commitment,” a regional plan to coordinate against transnational organized crime, including financial/tax intelligence and tighter immigration and frontier control. Drug War Effectiveness Questioned: A report on U.S. anti-drug strikes claims cocaine availability in the U.S. remains largely unchanged, while costs for the campaign have reached $4.7 billion and operations include ground strikes in Ecuador. Marine Shock From Super El Niño: A new analysis warns Super El Niño can destabilize fisheries by disrupting upwelling and plankton productivity, threatening coastal livelihoods and food security. Ecuador Energy/Trade Signals: Ecuador also announced USD 10.5 million support for fishers to offset spiking fuel costs, while separate coverage flags Ecuador’s banana trade pressures and a quarantine-related Russia ban on an Ecuadorian exporter. Local Business & Talent: Quito’s Caicedo-linked football academies expand as a youth anti-crime effort, while a separate business angle highlights Lundin Gold’s Fruta del Norte mine in Ecuador drawing fresh investor attention.

Crime Cooperation: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Peru signed the “Santiago Regional Compact” to coordinate action against transnational organised crime, including immigration and financial/tax intelligence, with a working group due to meet within 90 days. Fuel Shock Relief for Fishing: Ecuador’s government approved up to USD 10.5m in fuel-cost compensation for registered tuna fleets to offset diesel spikes tied to the Iran war, after diesel costs reportedly surged 141% year-on-year. Tourism Outlook: The WTTC forecasts Central and South America’s travel & tourism GDP to grow 4.1% in 2026 (vs 3.2% global), with Ecuador projected to lead the region at 11.6% growth. Regional Business & Trade: EU and Mexico signed an expanded free trade pact adding services and farm produce, plus investment support aligned with Mexico’s development plan. Ecuador Spotlight: Moisés Caicedo’s “Nino Moi 23” football academies are expanding across Ecuador, aiming to keep at-risk youth away from crime through sport.

Ecuador-US Security Cooperation: Ecuador’s fraying security situation stays in focus as the U.S. expands military and intelligence support for Ecuadorian operations against drug gangs, reflecting a broader push to treat cartel violence as a national-security priority. Regional Crime Crackdown: Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru agreed to a coordinated working plan against transnational organized crime, setting up a rotating working group to produce measurable actions within months. U.S. Terror Designations in Brazil: The Trump administration moved to designate Brazil’s PCC and CV as global terrorist groups, a step that could tighten financial flows and business links across the region. Ecuador Oil Policy Uncertainty: Petroecuador’s “hydraulic fracturing” plan in the Ecuadorian Amazon is triggering confusion and calls for more transparency over environmental and public-health risks. Trade Disruption for Ecuadorian Exports: Russia restricted imports from an Ecuadorian banana exporter after quarantine pest detections, raising compliance costs and forcing shipment reroutes. World Cup Business Angle for Ecuador: Philadelphia’s FIFA schedule highlights Ecuador’s June 14 opener vs Côte d’Ivoire, underscoring how Ecuador’s World Cup presence can drive travel, media attention, and local spending.

Oil & Environment: Petroecuador’s plan to use “hydraulic fracturing” in Block 57 (Sucumbíos) has sparked calls for clarity after conservation groups said the government didn’t clearly distinguish it from shale fracking and provided limited risk details. Politics & Governance: Ecuadorian social organizations have launched the recall process against President Daniel Noboa and Vice President María José Pinto, aiming to submit petitions to start the referendum on June 5, with organizers citing broad public discontent over security, the economy, and social spending cuts. Trade & Investment: Azerbaijan’s deputy foreign minister said state investment funds could back Ecuador’s energy and infrastructure projects, pointing to sovereign wealth capacity and potential agro-industrial cooperation. Regional Business: A WTTC forecast projects Central and South America’s Travel & Tourism GDP to grow 4.1% in 2026, with Ecuador expected to lead the region at 11% growth. Energy Finance: A judge ordered Ecuador’s state-owned oil shipping company to arbitrate a $650m fraud-related lawsuit tied to the Guillermo Lasso impeachment-era dispute.

Ecuador Recall Drive: Ecuadorian social organizations have launched the formal recall push against President Daniel Noboa and Vice President María José Pinto, aiming to collect signatures equivalent to 15% of registered voters (over 2 million) to trigger a referendum. Petitions are set to be submitted to the National Electoral Council on June 5, with organizers citing broad public disapproval tied to security, the economy, and social spending cuts. Oil & Arbitration: A U.S. federal judge ordered Ecuador’s state-owned oil shipping company to arbitrate a $650 million fraud lawsuit tied to the impeachment-era Lasso scandal, upholding the enforceability of underlying arbitration clauses. Crypto Payments in Ecuador: Visa says on-chain crypto card spending hit a record $7.8 billion, with stablecoin-linked cards expanding across Latin America, including Ecuador. El Niño Watch: NASA and European partners report warm-water buildup in the Pacific off South America, a sign El Niño could intensify later in 2026—raising risks for regional rainfall swings that can affect Ecuador’s economy and logistics. Security & Trade Context: Ecuador’s banana sector faces ongoing trade pressure in the region, while broader Andean trade disputes continue to shape market conditions. World Cup Ticketing Pressure: FIFA World Cup 2026 ticket prices are pricing out many fans in host cities, including Kansas City—an indirect hit to travel and local spending.

Ecuador–Colombia Trade: Ecuador’s government is maintaining its 100% tariffs on Colombia as the Andean Community weighs trade-war appeals, keeping cross-border costs and supply chains under pressure. Crime & Governance: President Daniel Noboa again touted U.S.-backed crime-fighting efforts and pledged to keep hunting down criminals, while Ecuador’s security push remains central to business confidence and investment risk. Mining & Energy Deals: Foreign capital continues to circle the region: a Chinese miner signed a US$1.7 billion exploitation contract in Ecuador, and Gran Tierra Energy said it cleared conditions precedent for Colombia’s Tisquirama contract—signals of ongoing extractives momentum. Weather Risk for Agriculture: Developing El Niño conditions are expected to shift rainfall patterns, with tropical regions—including parts of Ecuador’s food belt—likely facing added volatility that can hit yields and prices. World Cup Economy & Talent: Moisés Caicedo’s Ecuador-to-Chelsea rise keeps the spotlight on Ecuadorian talent ahead of World Cup 2026, while the tournament’s broader travel and spending outlook is set to boost services demand.

UN Diplomacy Watch: South Korea will host the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity (June 24–26), with all five candidates for the next UN secretary-general expected to gather and lay out their visions amid a “fragmented” world. Ecuador Security & Politics: President Daniel Noboa used his State of the Nation address to double down on a hardline anti-drug strategy, citing U.S.-linked intelligence and major extraditions and seizures, while also signaling continued emergency powers. Infrastructure Push: Noboa’s agenda puts big-ticket works—Quito Metro expansion, the Fifth Bridge, and the Nobol–Progreso corridor—front and center, turning public works into political territory in the country’s key electoral cities. Galápagos Business Move: ABB is partnering with Ecuador’s Quasar Expeditions to convert a classic yacht to hybrid-electric propulsion, aiming for quieter, lower-emission tourism in the biosphere reserve. Amazon Crime Risk: A new UN-linked report warns organized crime is driving “narco-deforestation” across the Amazon, including in Ecuador. Sports Spotlight: Moisés Caicedo’s rise from a working-class Ecuador neighborhood to a World Cup summer keeps Ecuador’s football dream in the headlines.