AGP Executive Report

Gold Mining: Lundin Gold reported record quarterly production of 153,736 ounces at Fruta del Norte, up from 122,086 ounces a year earlier, citing higher grades and strong mill throughput. Shrimp Exports: Ecuador’s fast-growing industry is looking for new buyers as producers expand capacity. ProEcuador is working to develop demand, while processors flagged cost pressures at a Spanish trade fair and a U.S. senator renewed calls for higher tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp. Energy: Colombia suspended power exports to Ecuador over shortage concerns, adding pressure as the country prepares for possible blackouts. Telecom Investment: Millicom launched its Tigo brand in Ecuador and pledged USD 900 million in investment. Trade & Logistics: Emirates SkyCargo reported a 14% rise in Ecuadorian export volumes, with flowers accounting for over 90% of its cargo from the country. Ecuador is also in talks with India over crude oil, copper and critical-mineral sales. Industry Services: Trützschler expanded its textile machinery service network in Ecuador, Peru and Colombia to provide faster local support.

Shrimp Trade: Ecuadorian processors reported cost pressures at Conxemar, while a U.S. senator renewed calls for higher tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp, posing a threat to exporters’ competitiveness. Power Supply: Colombia formally suspended electricity sales to Ecuador amid El Niño-related shortage risks, cementing a halt to commercial flows that had been in place since September. Investment: Millicom launched its Tigo brand in Ecuador and pledged $900 million in investment; shrimp firm Omarsa also expanded by acquiring a French refrigerated-products division. New Markets: Ecuador is negotiating with India on crude oil, critical minerals and copper sales, seeking to broaden trade ties. Small Businesses: A Mastercard survey found 97% of SMEs in Latin America and the Caribbean accept digital payments, but cyber fears are slowing expansion, with 51% citing fraud and attacks as a barrier.

Energy: Colombia has formally suspended electricity exports to Ecuador as El Niño strains its power system, removing a key source of supply as Ecuador faces its own energy pressures. Investment: Millicom has launched the Tigo brand in Ecuador and pledged US$900 million in investment. Ecuador is also discussing sales of crude oil, copper and critical minerals to India. Trade: Shrimp exporters face a fresh risk as a U.S. senator seeks higher tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp; meanwhile, local producer Omarsa has acquired Nueva Pescanova’s French refrigerated-products division. Tourism: Arajet has restored direct Guayaquil–Punta Cana flights, with its first services reported full, strengthening connections for Ecuadorian travelers. Climate and business: El Niño-driven ocean warming is pushing fish away from Ecuador’s coast, leaving some fishing boats idle and adding pressure on coastal livelihoods.

El Niño & Food Security: UNICEF warns that the 2026 “Super El Niño” could bring unusually severe flooding or drought to 347 million children across nearly 100 countries, with the Niño 3.4 ocean temperature already breaking records. Fisheries & Local Livelihoods: Off Ecuador’s coast, warming seas are pushing tuna and anchovies away, leaving Pacific fishermen in Ecuador and Peru hauling empty nets and idling boats. Ecuador Economy & Energy Policy: President Daniel Noboa’s plan starts Oct. 6 to exempt privately purchased power-generation equipment from VAT, import fees and ISD taxes, aiming to speed private electricity production and reduce reliance on the grid amid rising “country risk.” Trade & Commodities: Ecuador is in talks with India to expand sales of crude oil, copper and critical minerals, while inviting Indian firms to invest in Ecuador’s oil and mining sectors. Security & Business Risk: The U.S. redeployed some MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador as anti-cartel operations expand, raising the security backdrop for cross-border logistics. Crime & Social Impact: Ecuador recorded a record 430 homicides of children and adolescents in Jan–Aug 2026, even as overall killings fell 6.4%.

U.S.-Ecuador Security: The U.S. redeployed a limited number of MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador as Washington expands anti-cartel operations from sea to land, signaling a tougher posture in the region. Visa Pressure on Corruption: A new wave of U.S. visa revocations is being used to target officials accused of corruption and narcotics links across Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, with calls to extend the approach to other countries. Ecuador-India Trade: Ecuador is in talks with India to boost sales of Ecuadorean crude oil, copper and critical minerals, while also exploring Indian purchases of medical products from Ecuador’s state healthcare supplier. Telecom Investment: Millicom launched the Tigo brand in Ecuador after buying Otecel, reporting USD 450m already invested and another USD 460m planned over four years. Labor Mobility Rule Change: Israel will stop private recruitment of construction workers from India and Sri Lanka from Jan. 1, 2027, while keeping Ecuador on an approved list—relevant for Ecuadorian job flows. Local Business & Sports: HYPE MMA held its first Ecuador event in Quito with 1xBet as title sponsor, highlighting growing sports-betting ties in the market.

Telecom Investment: Millicom launched its Tigo brand in Ecuador after buying Otecel, saying it has already put USD 450m into the market and plans USD 460m more over four years. Energy & Security: The US confirmed it redirected USD 52.1m in military financing to Colombia, Ecuador, Panama and Peru, as Washington expands counternarcotics cooperation. Trade & Labor: Israel will stop private recruitment of Sri Lankan and Indian construction workers from Jan 1, 2027, while keeping Ecuador on an approved list—an important signal for Ecuador’s labor export strategy. Agribusiness & Food Supply: Cocoa prices stay volatile as climate risks threaten long-term yields, keeping pressure on manufacturers’ costs and planning. Health & Public Finance: In Cuenca, dialysis patients and providers protested unpaid government payments, warning that arrears could disrupt lifesaving care. Environment & Risk: Azuay’s fires topped 1,700 hectares this year, with dry vegetation and wind driving fast spread. Sports & Culture (local angle): Ecuador’s Juan Riquelme Angulo scored his first senior international goal in a friendly vs Panama.

Ecuador–U.S. Security: Human Rights Watch is pressing for answers after U.S. operations destroyed eight Ecuadorian fishing boats, leaving 160 crew members with lost livelihoods and alleging abuse during boardings. Energy & Power: Weekend rains boosted generation at Coca Codo Sinclair and raised the Mazar reservoir by over a meter, easing the grid as authorities resume output at two Mazar plants while warning the energy deficit remains large. Health & Public Finance: Cuenca dialysis patients and families protested unpaid state bills, saying the Ministry of Health and IESS keep sending patients to private centers while payments pile up, threatening treatment continuity. Trade & Industry: Ecuadorian shrimp firm Omarsa bought Nueva Pescanova’s refrigerated France division, aiming to expand into the French chilled shrimp market. Environment & Risk: Fires in Azuay have burned over 1,700 hectares this year, with Cuenca reporting more than 600 hectares amid dry vegetation and wind. U.S. Tariffs Watch: A U.S. senator introduced the Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act, proposing phased duties up to 40% by 2029. Oil & Indigenous Rights: A report highlights how some Quichua communities along the lower Napo river accepted oil extraction despite major environmental risks.

Trade & Tariffs: U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith introduced the “Ecuador Shrimp Tariff Act,” proposing phased duties that could reach 40% by Jan. 1, 2029, plus an extra $0.10/kg for inspections—aimed at protecting Gulf shrimpers as Ecuador remains a major supplier to the U.S. Security & Cross-Border Crime: Ecuador and Colombia are deepening a U.S.-backed crackdown after Colombian authorities arrested Inda Mariela Peñarrieta Tuárez and Michelle Macías Peñarrieta, relatives of jailed Los Choneros leader “Fito,” in a case tied to a $25m money-laundering network. Maritime Drug Trafficking: Ecuador’s Navy says it sank a vessel carrying 2.3 tons of drugs near Manta, while Defense Minister Gian Carlo Loffredo warned that traffickers are allegedly posing as shipwrecked survivors to exploit Panama rescue systems. Energy & Investment: Ecuador announced a new oil auction for the end of 2026 as it courts investors. Climate Risk: Wall Street economists flagged El Niño as a key risk for Ecuador, alongside broader regional heat and supply-chain disruption concerns.

Oil & Gas Investment: Ecuador says it will launch a new tender for remote Amazon oil blocks in December 2026, targeting about $1 billion in investment, even as seven Indigenous nations reject the planned “Ronda Suroriente” and “Ronda Subandina” over legal, environmental, and financial risks. Energy Crunch: Power disconnections for large companies were extended again to 72 hours as water levels remain low at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair, with business leaders questioning fairness and calling for broader burden-sharing. Security & Trade: Ecuador and Colombia are consolidating a US-backed anti–transnational organized crime alliance after joint action helped capture family members tied to jailed drug boss “Fito,” signaling tighter cross-border enforcement. Maritime Enforcement: Ecuador’s Navy says it destroyed a vessel carrying 2.3 tons of drugs intercepted near Manta, citing risks to commercial and fishing traffic. Food & Consumer Trends: A US state-level move in California highlights how “ultra-processed” labeling is spreading, a reminder for Ecuador’s food sector as consumers demand clearer standards. Regional Market Signals: Chinese auto brands keep expanding across Latin America, with Argentina’s first Chinese auto show reflecting tariff changes and surging sales—Ecuador remains on the list of markets seeing BYD growth.

Drug Enforcement & Cross-Border Security: Ecuador and Colombia are consolidating a US-backed alliance after joint operations captured family members tied to Ecuador’s “Fito,” signaling tighter regional pressure on transnational organized crime. Maritime Interdiction: Ecuador’s Navy sank a vessel carrying 2.3 tons of drugs near Manta, citing risks to fishing and commercial traffic. Energy Crunch: Power disconnections for large companies were extended again to 72 hours as hydro reservoirs stay low, raising fairness concerns among industry. Oil & Indigenous Opposition: Ecuador announced a December tender for remote Amazon oil blocks, despite seven Indigenous nations rejecting the plan over legal, environmental, and economic risks. Trade & Industry Policy: The US Congress is moving to protect Gulf shrimp producers from Ecuadorian imports via a proposed tariff regime, highlighting Ecuador’s exposure to shifting seafood trade rules. Immigration & Tech: Ecuador ordered the deportation of Swedish programmer Ola Bini after revoking his visa on national-security grounds. Diplomacy: Ecuador reaffirmed support for Morocco’s autonomy plan at the UN, while also engaging on broader international cooperation.

Amazon Mining Fight: A new documentary, “When Waterfalls Die,” spotlights the Shuar Arutam community’s fight against Canadian firm Solaris Resources over open-pit copper mining in Ecuador’s Amazon, raising fresh questions about Indigenous land rights and the country’s constitutional “rights of nature.” Cross-Border Security: Ecuador and Colombia are consolidating a US-backed anti-crime alliance after a joint operation helped capture family members of jailed drug boss “Fito,” signaling tighter regional coordination against transnational networks. Energy Crunch Hits Industry: Ecuador extended electricity disconnections again—up to 72 hours for large users—as water levels at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair remain low, with business groups pushing back on who bears the cost. Oil & Investment Pipeline: Ecuador announced a new oil auction for remote Amazon blocks by end-2026, even as seven Indigenous nations reject the plan and warn investors. Visa & Governance Pressure: The US continues broad visa revocations across Latin America tied to alleged corruption and drug trafficking, with Ecuadorians among those affected. Trade & Tariffs: A US bill would raise tariffs on Ecuador shrimp to protect Gulf producers from increased Ecuador imports. Diplomacy: Ecuador reaffirmed support for Morocco’s Western Sahara autonomy plan at the UN.

Ecuador Oil & Gas Investment: Ecuador announced a new oil auction for remote Amazon blocks in December 2026, targeting about $1bn in investment, but Indigenous nations warn the proposed rounds overlap their territories and could face long-running legal and environmental pushback. Energy Crunch for Industry: Power disconnections for large companies were extended again to 72 hours as water levels at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair drop, raising fairness concerns from business groups that say firms are being made “the sacrificial lambs.” Immigration & Tech Fallout: Ecuador ordered the deportation of Swedish programmer and digital-rights activist Ola Bini after revoking his visa on national-security grounds, with a 10-year return ban. Trade & Tariffs: A U.S. bill introduced by Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith would raise tariffs on Ecuadorian shrimp to protect Gulf wild-caught producers, citing Ecuador’s growing share of U.S. imports. Regional Business Context: The U.S. is also redirecting $52.1m in Foreign Military Financing from Ukraine/Europe and Middle East partners to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, a move that lawmakers say may violate the original congressional purpose.

Ecuador Deportation Watch: Ecuador ordered the deportation of Swedish programmer and digital-rights activist Ola Bini, barring him from returning for 10 years after the government revoked his visa on national-security grounds, with his legal team saying the order came before a judge ruled on a habeas petition. Energy & Business Impact: Ecuador extended electricity disconnections again as water levels fall at Mazar and Coca Codo Sinclair—large firms now face up to 72 hours off, while 9,089 medium-sized companies are set for 48-hour cuts—sparking pushback from industry leaders over who bears the cost. Security & Illegal Gold: Ecuador’s Defense Ministry said five “terrorists” tied to an illegal gold network between Los Lobos and Colombia’s Comandos de la Frontera were neutralized, highlighting the armed groups’ revenue dependence on gold. Trade & Compliance: A U.S. move designating Los Tiguerones as a foreign terrorist organization is already driving Ecuadorian companies and law firms to tighten compliance across shrimp, agribusiness, ports, and maritime supply chains. Aviation & Connectivity: Air Canada is expanding winter connectivity, including new direct flights from Quito to North America, supporting travel and business links.

Ecuador-US Legal & Trade: Ecuador’s National Court approved the extradition to the U.S. of Daniel Salcedo and former police officer Ronald Herrera, tied to the Fernando Villavicencio assassination probe and sought on U.S. drug-trafficking and money-laundering charges. Energy & Indigenous Opposition: At ENAEP 2026, Ecuador’s oil push faces renewed resistance as seven Indigenous nations reject proposed 2026 Amazon auction blocks, warning investors and companies against extraction in overlapping territories. EV Momentum: Ecuador’s EV market is accelerating fast, with reports pointing to BEV growth beyond 10% and near 20% when PHEVs are included—positioning Ecuador as a rising regional player. Aviation & Tourism: Quito expands North America connectivity with new direct Air Canada flights, aiming to boost travel demand and commercial ties. Finance & Payments Innovation: Exodus launched “Exodus Checkout” to let businesses accept dollar stablecoins, starting with DIRECTV’s DGO and expanding to Ecuador among other LATAM markets. Climate Risk: UNICEF warns 25.8M children across Latin America face very high El Niño-related rainfall risks, with Ecuador among countries highlighted in regional exposure.

Stablecoin payments in Ecuador: Exodus Checkout is rolling out dollar stablecoin acceptance for merchants via DIRECTV’s DGO, starting in Argentina and expanding to Ecuador and other LATAM markets, signaling a push toward everyday crypto commerce. Energy crunch hits businesses: Ecuador is extending electricity disconnections for large and medium consumers to 48 hours a week as El Niño strains hydro generation, adding cost and operating risk for firms. Oil investment vs Indigenous opposition: At ENAEP 2026, Ecuador’s oil sector is courting new Amazon investment, but seven Indigenous nations warn they will keep opposing 2026 Amazon auctions, threatening timelines and permitting. Quito boosts trade and tourism access: Quito announces new direct Air Canada flights to strengthen North American connectivity, supporting travel demand and commercial links. Health-tech deal with regional reach: Nexalin Technology signed a definitive exclusive distribution and local manufacturing agreement covering Brazil and multiple countries including Ecuador, with an initial device rollout and clinical pilot planned. Amazon climate risk: UNICEF estimates 25.8 million children across Latin America face very high El Niño-related rainfall risks, raising pressure on food, water, and services. Visa and security policy spillovers: The U.S. reports revoking 250,000+ visas and expanding “Shield of the Americas” to include critical mineral supply chains—developments that can affect regional business mobility and investment screening.

Aviation & Trade Links: Quito’s Mariscal Sucre Airport gets a boost as Air Canada resumes service in December with nonstop flights to Montreal and Toronto, adding new connectivity for business and tourism. Energy & Indigenous Rights: Ecuador’s oil summit comes as planned 2026 Amazon auctions remain stalled, with Indigenous nations warning that delayed rounds and overlapping territories make extraction risky and non-viable. Climate Risk to Business: A “super” El Niño is expected to intensify into 2027, raising the odds of flooding in parts of Ecuador and Peru and disrupting regional supply chains, commodity output, and infrastructure. Food & Fisheries Pressure: Along Ecuador’s Pacific coast, warming waters are leaving fishermen with emptier nets as tuna and other species shift to cooler areas. U.S. Visa Crackdown With Regional Reach: The U.S. State Department says it has revoked 250,000+ visas since Trump took office, including restrictions tied to corruption and drug-trafficking allegations affecting Ecuador and other Latin American countries. Security Cooperation: U.S. Southern Command signals land strikes and raids could remain on the table as anti-cartel operations expand across Latin America. Local Entrepreneurship Spotlight: A mall in North Riverside highlights Hispanic entrepreneurs, including an Ecuador-inspired home goods and jewelry business, underscoring how cultural trade can drive local growth.